The Coldest Winter Ever

One day in early September the chief of a Native American tribe was asked by his tribal elders if the winter of 2008 was going to be cold or mild. The chief asked his medicine man, but he too had lost touch with the
reading signs from the natural world around the Great Lakes.

In truth, neither of them had idea about how to predict the coming winter. However, the chief decided to take a modern approach, and the chief rang the National Weather Service in Gaylord Michigan.

‘Yes, it is going to be a cold winter,’ the meteorological officer told the chief. Consequently, he went back to his tribe and told the men to collect plenty of firewood.

A fortnight later the chief called the Weather Service and asked for an update. ‘Are you still forecasting a cold winter?’ he asked.

‘Yes, very cold’, the weather officer told him.

As a result of this brief conversation the chief went back to the tribe and told his people to collect every bit of wood they could find.

A month later the chief called the National Weather Service once more and asked about the coming winter. ‘Yes,’ he was told, ‘it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever.’

‘How can you be so sure?’ the chief asked.

The weatherman replied: ‘Because the Native Americans of the Great Lakes are collecting wood like crazy.’

Author Unknown

Mistletoe

Mistletoe's association with peace and good will is so strong that once, if enemies met under a tree that by chance had mistletoe, they were required to lay down their arms and declare a truce until the following day. The strongest connection between mistletoe and the Yule season comes from Norse mythology. Frigga (also known as Freya) was the goddess of beauty, love, and marriage. Wife of the powerful Norse god Odin, Frigga was a sky goddess, responsible for weaving the clouds, and therefore responsible for rain and for thunderstorms.

Her sacred animal was the goose, and in her Germanic incarnation as the goddess Holda or Bertha, she was the original Mother Goose (causing it to snow when she shook out her bedding). Sitting at her spinning wheel weaving the fates, she was also a goddess of divination and credited with the creation of runes...more precisely she was a 'seer', one who knew the future but could never change it or reveal it to others.

Frigga was the mother of Baldur (Balder), the best loved of all the Norse gods. And she foresaw his death. Knowing that there was nothing she could do to avert his fate, the hapless goddess extracted a promise from all things that they would play no part in his death. Unfortunately, thinking the mistletoe was too insignificant to bother with, she neglected to secure its pledge.

And when the malevolent prankster Loki discovered her oversight, he crafted a dart made of the poisonous plant. Devious and evil, he brought it to Baldur's brother who was blind, suggesting a game of darts and agreeing to guide his hand. And this he did, directing the dart directly at Baldur's heart.

The mistletoe's white berries were formed from Frigga's tears of mourning. Some versions of the story of Baldur's death end happily. Baldur is restored to life, and the goddess Frigga is so grateful that she reverses the reputation of the baleful plant, making it a symbol of peace and love and promising a kiss to all who pass under it.

horse dice game

so much fun playing it again, I haven't play it since umm.. back in VN
wow been forever since play that again!! so lucky today to win on first try, Hy ma~!!! Go horse!

Every moment I spent with you is full of exciting, and new experiences. I wonder what's next await for us to discover :)
Even if there's no adventure or excited things, spending time next to you always fill me with happiness and serene

halloween is coming up, what will I be this year?
hmm what will she be?

3 more days.. cannot decide.

Longing for you

Longing For You


Speak to me once more in that gentle tone

How I long to hear your gentle speech

Telling me that I am not alone,

Touching those places only you can reach.

Then bless me once more in your mind

With all the loving thoughts you hold

And in my heart again I'll find

Those treasured words more dear than gold.

In those early hours when you sit at rest

Let your bright spirit come to me.

Communing with your soul I'm blessed

And on your wings, my soul flies free.

I was wrong..

I said I wouldn't be sad after reading those emails but... it made me a bit sad because like me, I've been through similar events and its like watching a sad movie w/o a happy ending. Though what can we do... those were the memories that we truly believe as the truth back then. However life.. we must move on, accept it and live for TODAY in hope of a better future. With no regrets and no what if.

In this I believe.

Thanks for sharing it with me,

Love always.

Sadd...then..Happiee!!

I was sad and sad this afternoon..bored..and missed u,..i tried to do something else to passed the time...but still..i missssssssssssss u sooo much,,so i checked out some stuff on your facebook, then i send u a message telling u im bored and sadd sadd..After that u called me,,and told me a sad sadd storyy which i dont like,,but u made me happy again,..and...i cried!<3

yey!

Yey, im no longer lonely on this hehehe finally dzu. duo.c mo.t nguoi` theo roi` hehheehh
emmm.. try to post here as much as u can :)

Bus 188 - 5 (midterm study guide)

Explain why competitive advantage are typically temporary.
Define the relationship between benchmark and benchmarking
list and define the four primary reasons, for the growth of decision making info system.
What is data mining? how can it be use as inputs into AI and neural network system, give example of it use.
describe business processes and their importance to an organization
explain why an org would use metrics to determine a website success.
provide an example of metrics and its use.
describe authentication and the most secure type of authentication
provide an example of its use.
list and describe the five characteristics of adaptable systems.
describe the broad levels, formats, and granularities of information.

Study Guide

Bus 161a 9/23

Perception - is the process by which we select, organize, and interpret the input from their senses to give meaning and order to the world around them.

www.quirkology.com

Perceiver---> Target <--- (context)

Interpret context by using schemas

Schemas - cognitive subconcious
Functional - make sense of sensory input
choose what information to pay attention to and what to ignore
guide perceptions of ambiguous information

I.E. Stereotype = schemas about ppl

Cognitive Bias: Primary Effect
Initial impression fits into schemas
other information is integrated into that schema

Cognitive Bias: Contrast effect (big fish small pond effect)

Similar-to-Me Effect
we see others that belong to our groups more positively

Self-Fullfilling prophecy

Beliefs of the evaluator -------> Behavior of the subordinate------->repeat

Bus 162 - 9/21

Broadening the debate Discussion

globalization = overlapping interest between biz and society
a process leadeing to greater business interdependent & network, economic, political, soccial & cultural
Rich become rich, poor become poor, opposite of what trade do
Trades should lift all boats.

Bus 161a - 2

Measure we talk about today
Locus of control
optimism

The Big 5 (OCEAN)
Openness to exp (Open)
Conscientiousness (conscient) careful, scupulous, perservering
Extroversion (extra)
Agreeableness (agree)
Neuroticism (neuro) emotional instability

Emotional Intelligence
Understand own emotions (eq_selfemot)
Identify other's emotions (eq_otheremot)
Regulate one's own emotions (eq_regemot)
Use emotions (eq_useemot)

Creativity
Skills

BUS 188 - 3

Define TPS, DSS, and EIS and explain how company can use to gain advantage

Decision making - analyze large amount of info, fast, apply analysis, protect info.

Executive Info System
Decision support System -
Transaction Processing System - detail level, name change, address change, payroll

TRANSACTION PROCESSING SYSTEMS
Transaction processing system (TPS) - basic business system that serves the operation lv
Online transaction processing (OLTP) - capturing of transaction and event information using technology
Online analytical processing (OLAP) - manipulation of information to create business intelligence in support of strategic decision making

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
repackaging data and generate report

AI- DSS, AIS system

Business process re-engineering
what step to eliminate or enhance

Information architecture - identifies where and how important information, such as customer records, is maintained secured.

Backup and recovery
Disaster recovery
Information security

Fault tolerance - a computer system designed that in the event a component fails, a backup component or procedure can immediately take its place with no loss of services.
keep on going,

Failover - a backup operational mode in which the functions of a computer component (such as a processor, server, network, or database) is assumed by secondary system components when the primary component becomes unavailable through either failure or scheduled down time.
replace

BUS 188 - 2

week 2

Quiz on chapter 1 next week
Sign-in sheet must be signed.
Team HW/Exercise due next week on BB by 6PM
chapter 1: closing case three- the world is flat pg 33

CH1

Information Systems in Business

IT helps customer services
IT Goals = Reduce cost/ improve productivity

Data->Information-> Business Intelligence
Improving Communication

Porter Five Forces Model
1 Buying Power
2 Supplier Power
3 Threat of New Entrance
4 Threat of substitute Product or service
5 Rivalry among existing Competitors

Cost Strategy
Low Cost High Cost
Broad Market Narrow Market

Bus 161a -1

ID = whatever u'r email w/o @ sign
password = fall

Log on Blackboard
Complete the first On-Line Assignment
(OLA#1)
Complete the On-Line Quiz

Setup Turnitin.com account

F.W. Taylor and Scientific Management
Mary Parker Follett
Hawthorn


Frederick Taylor
study ppl at car factories
how to change things in environment to increase performance
standardize the routine
ignore people feeling, everyone is interchange able
very top down command

Bus 188 - 1

188T

Purchase text book
Read chapter 1-2

File Format 188T_Team_"Teamname".xls
188T_Team_RedOctober.xls

Bus 162 - 1

Chapter One

Globalization and International Linkages

1. Assess - the implication of globalization for countries, industries, firms, and communities.
2. Review - The major trends in global and regional integration
3. Examine
4. Analyze

International Mgnt
* International management process:
-Applying management concepts and techniques in a multinational environment
-Adapting management practices to different economic, political, and cultural environments.
*Multinational corporation (MNC):
- Operations in more than one country
- International sales
- Nationality mix of managers and owners

Globalization: the process of integration among countries around the world with a vision of a single market entity: Social, Economic, Political, Technological, Cultural

Internationalization: the process of a business crossing national and cultural borders.

*Benefits of Globalization: Wealth, jobs, technology, lower prices.
*Criticisms of Globalization: off-shoring of business service jobs to lower wage country; growing trade deficits; slow wage growth; environmental and social impacts.

Global Agreement
World Trade Organization (WTO)
(General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)
*Regional Agreements:
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
U.S. - Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA)
Europe Union (EU)
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA)

read ch 1-2

Business Society 1-1

Environment in which business operates.
How much say society should have about bank and finance institution

4 books.
The corporation "the pathological pursuit of profit and power"
"The big squeeze"
Predictably Irrational -
Outliers by malcom gladwell

www.gradebookcentral.com
ID: name
pass: last 4 digit of student ID
tell him where I want to get my txt msg.
everything goes thru Email.

Five Friends

In this universe, you have five friends. Everybody has these friends, they have the same essence. They live within your heart, and so may be projected all around you. If cultivated with love, these five friends will help to erradicate all of your fear and wrath. They will bring you gifts of peace, and reflect back to you all the love you invest in them.

They may be greeted in this order. I say, when I get the FEAR, I call on my five friends FEEAW. Good to remember them, and become aquanted with them for quick greeting. They all work together to weave you a web of elightenment.

F
Faith. Faith is your first friend. When you chill with Faith, there showers gifts of relaxation. Faith is consciously surrendering your tensions to the universe, knowing that the flow knows how to manifest your existance better than you could possibly imagine. Faith is patiently surrendering all the tensions in your muscles and organs one at a time to the cellular awareness, and the flow of your entire life to the cosmos, knowing that whatever manifests in every moment is perfectly in Way.

Faith is feminine emptyness- surrendering to higher consciousness in all things. Surrender your ego's peak to the valley of Faith as you exhale, there is nothing left but relaxation to arise.

Watch your breath now.


E
Equanimity. Equanimity is your second friend, with gifts of balance. Equanimity is perceiving all people, events, perceptions or mental processes equally, without dualistic interfearance. No good or bad, likes or dislikes... just flow with it as it comes to you. When you chill with Equanimity you do not react, you pro-act. Pro-actively you take the right action to solve a problem if it arises. Equanimity doesn't complain about anything, is ultimately accepting and so never actually perceives a problem to begin with, yet flows compassionately to balance what others might consider to be problematic to their flow.

Equanimity knows that this is the eternal moment, so acting in league with Equanimity grounds your heart to infinity.

Still breathing.


E
Effort. Effort is your third friend, bringing gifts of progress, it will pull you upward along your path. Effort is the most subtle energy manifesting discipline to continue practice in every moment, which slowly becomes effortless. This Effort comes once you've surrendered your gross efforts with Faith and Equanimity.

Effort, like your other friends, runs on love. Feed Effort lots of love, remaining in the eternal present moment, and your body-mind will slowly come under control of your higher-mind.

Relax as you exhale.


A
Awareness. Awareness is your fourth friend bearing the gift of awakening. Awareness is ultimately unmanifest, and so can penatrate any level of any form... it is the very root of all form in any state ever arising. It is what makes your dreams as real as this collective cellular manifestion we commonly refer to as body-mind and it's perceptions in life. Awareness is totally unaffected by all phenomenon. Ultimately detached, just observing. When your consciousness is in the most liberated state, it serves only as a mirror so that Awareness can gaze upon it's cosmic dance of emptyness with playful awe, which is the only reason it ever chose to manifest all this in the first place.

Everything you are made of is pure awareness. The illusion of suffering happened to arise out of ignorance, though it is just a shadow... awareness is the white light, destoyer of ignorance and suffering. Use your other friends to make sure it is untainted, then shine it down on any of your boogie men to realize that they are just ignorance, and like shadows they have no substance.

You are one with all things... look around, your body is in the world. Your mind is utterly integrated into your body, which shares the space with all other beings... your whole mind is on the outside, you can see the little bits of dead cells floating around in your eyeballs when you look at the sky. We are one with all beings in this space and we're not going anywhere... we're already there.

Integrating this increasingly subtle Awareness to project into the nuances of gross manifestation will bring a deep sense of belonging in every moment. Belonging to this body, this Earth, this Universe, eternally. They are all your manifestation, and there is nothing else to be, nowhere else to go... this is it, your life at this moment manifesting 50 trillion cells, on this living planet, the most cosmic dance you could ever imagine... beyond imagination, just watching it arise in this moment of white light is all there is, all there will ever be, ever.

So keep breathing, the breaths are your steps in astral space... follow each one into the next and they're moving forward into


W
Wisdom. Wisdom is your fifth friend, carrying the gift of detachment. The eternal archetypal Wisdom beneath all other cultured forms of Wisdom is that there is only one eternal truth, which is that nothing is eternal. Everything ever is always inconstant, perpetual flow at all levels is the nature of all things manifesting awareness in space/time. All things pass, all creation is imbued with it's own destruction. This moment is all there is.

So in this moment when somthing arises which is problematic, know that this will pass. You stubbed your toe, a terrible wrath ascends to your awareness. Call it pain. Watch it arise, and then watch it pass away.

Understand this wisdom in the most practical sense and it will ground you deeply into the moment.

So in this moment when somthing fantastic arises, know that this too will also pass. A fantastic piece of sushi is served, and you pop it in your mouth. Enjoy it in this moment, watch it arise and watch it pass without developing attachment to the sensation. Forever it is gone, so not to visualize it coming back. This very moment alone is the truth.

All sensation is just a change in the body. All awareness is in constrast. Black is imbued with white, good with bad, pleasure with pain, pride with shame. They are all one, perpetually oscillating for infinity. There is no end to space and time, best to master them with this wonderful opportunity manifesting the human body. It is very rare, very unique.

Be aware with this wisdom that you will die. Visualize what you think death will be like. All this disappears. So look around, there is nothing else to do. Every moment is key.


So may these five friends Faith, Equanimity, Effort, Awareness and Wisdom weave an eternal web for your essence to balance on through this moment and into infinity where all become one.
I will see you there.

May the flow be with you.

Life

Life is the projection of awareness into gross manifestation
Spawning an eternal state of distraction from
A wild storm of empty thoughts
Sucking energy to perceive
Form in the contrast
Between the elements
Oscillating frantically
To generate the illusion of substantiality
Which finds itself interesting enough
To propagate.

Mother of Others

Your heart connects to one great mo

ther,
wherein all hearts meet each other.

One trillion threads converge as one,
singing as they dance along.

~

A trillion me!
Ten trillion you!
A hundred trillion things to do!

A thousand million trillion waves -
A billion trillion paths to take!

So many these, so many thats,
delicious teas and fashionable hats.

A trillion trilion ways to find
infinite ways to blow your mind!

All these lovers, all these colors -
trillions to mistake as 'other'.

~

Yet 'other' is the dark mother,
with wrong and bad her twin brothers.

Many cry many tears
churning up in wrong-bad's gears.

Though wrong and bad don't stand a chance
when love you are, and light you have!

They'll wipe themselves right off the map
before you're even half-way back
to where this whole great show began -
in always-and-forever-land.

The deepest, darkest pit of all
with one bright light, is clear to all!

~

So how to live a trillion years,
free of wrathful wrong-bad's fear?

Few have ever done the math
and fewer still have walked the path.

Yet you're the One, and now's the time...
so what is it you're trying to find?

~

Could 'trillion' others all be you?

Well that depends a lot on who
you think yourself to be.

A trillion yous that think they're me?

Or one who knows you're always you,
so clearly all the rest are too.

Behind hidden doors

Boundless

dreamflows

rising up and across

the desert of concrete cycles of money sex and violence -

the hard gears of society hardening themselves

into numbness so they can fall safely asleep.



A white mask

caught in smile's eyes

welling up with fright

bridges the void with vision.



Death says check-mate -

life is a sacrifice to itself.

Here lives the line between ignorance and

intentional non-awareness of the black pattern that crawls in the night

eating the souls of the sleeping.

Yet in living with this line -

what could ever be done

but to let it be?

Sweet One

heart glitters my soul with your tongue drops

tingling the words to describe

how weaving deep down to the great earth

our headpiece expands to the sky.


space phases in waves through my body

love whispers to me in your voice


so blessed by the infinite speechless

oh sweet how all love is divine.

The Starving Heartist

There is no deeper codex to read
than the mysteries of the heart.

No text can conjure it.

No taste can achieve it.

Text mumbles, bloobidy blah blopp
blaberdangle...

Search within for the answers -
we're already the Masters.

OM Week 4-1

Looking into the Future:
The Planning Horizon
*A business may have many diff planning horizons depending on the resource in question
-Inventory - Usually very short
-Employee- Generally pretty short
*temps, new hire, etc.
-Equipment- A little longer
*purchasing and installation lead times
-Facilities - Longest
*purchase property, building the building

Qualitative Forecasts
-Do not use past data. Usually used when such data is not available (such as planning for a new product)
*Causal Techniques
-Uses external data to predict
-Looking for the factor that "cause" demand
-Linear regression is often used
*Time Series Techniques
-Use past demand to predict future demand
**There are four potential components of a time series:
-Cycles
--A pattern that repeat over a long period of time (such as 20 yrs)
--Cycles are less important for demand forecasting, since we rarely have 20 yrs worth of data.
-Trend
-Seasonality
-Randomness

Quantitative Forecasts
- Divided into causal forecasting and time series forecasting techniques.

Exponential Smoothing
* A variant of moving average ( weighted average)
-Premise: more recent observations are better indicators of future demand than past observations.
-Use a smoothing costant, 'alpha' (a) to weight the pervious demand and establish the responsiveness of the forecast.
F_t+1 = alphaA_t+(1-alpha)F_t
F_t+1 = the forecast for the next time period
Alpha = A smoothing constant, between 0 and 1
A_t = The actual demand for the most recent period
F_t = The forecast for the most recent period

exam question = Increase alpha = more sensitive, decrease alpha = less sensitive

Summer days

Gathering around a fire, on the beach
One night in June
Talking of future, past and love affairs

As fire turned into ashes, a man came
Asking for direction
He wanted to know the way to the promise land

No one knew the way, to the bright side
No one knew the way, to the right side
Accidentally pointed one way, towards horizon
And he started walking slowly down the shoreline

Break of dawn, we were wandering
Aimless in the darkness
Break of dawn, we were roaming
Wasted in the greyness
Ended up in the right place? No one knows.

11:24Am, June 21, 2009 Happy!!!
6/24/09 First kiss

Bus 150 HR week 4-1

rning
Do:
Give Warning
Keep Private
Be Brief
Written statement of Benefits
Outplacement Locations
From a Manager
Express Appropriate appreciation

Don'ts:
Create Confusion
Debate
Make Personal Comments
Rush
Fire on significant date


3. employee evaluations are current and accurate
"our goal is to repopulate our work force that do more in less"

A worthy Sin

when you look into my eyes

my thoughts are distracted as my tummy fills with butterflies

when you gently caress my cheeks

my face blushes and the armor i wear daily becomes weak

when you run your exploring fingers through my hair

each strand you touch sends shivers down my neck and back thats bare

when you pull me closer and softly whisper into my ears

the voices of thousands of angels quickly rushes near

when your enticing lips so passionately found mine

even heaven lighted up and shined.

i knew then with you i will be fine.

-Vee Phuong

Field of dreams

The blazing sunlight of summer
that lits the asphalt
The song that disappears among the crowd

"I believe in the future"
Leaving the tiny town on a summer day's morning
Your last words
Both of us, at the carpark

Today, are we still
singing at the top of our voices
The small, broken amplifier that we are using
is glowing with light

The blazing sunlight of summer
that lits the asphalt
The song that disappears among the crowd
The heated canned coffee
which was gripped firmly by frost-bitten fingers
The song that could not outlast the wintry gale :buncry:

If it's merely a pipe dream
everybody is illustrating theirs
But I couldn't stop you
no matter how impulsive it seems

But please do not forget
the moments , no matter how short it was
that we have spent together

In many different ways,
we chose to embark on this journey of life.
The song that seeks to find direction in life
In the guitar case,
we kept our steely determination to succeed
The song that truely belongs to the undaunted.

In the underpass, where cherry blossoms are falling
the rhythms of music echoes through
The song that gets trampled on by disorderly footstep
Performing during the school anniversary
The song that gets mocked at
by a bunch of carefree people

The blazing sunlight of summer
that lits the asphalt
The song that disappears among the crowd
The heated canned coffee
which was gripped firmly by frost-bitten fingers
The song that could not outlast the wintry gale

OB week 3-1

Communication

2 model
Process
Relationship

DIRECTION OF COMMUNICATION
-Downward, upward, and lateral
-Key points
-manager must remember the "why" is as important as the "what"
-Managers too frequently discourage upward communication

The msg u sent often time isn't what they heard.

7% words, 55% facial expression & posture, 38% from vocal tonation and inflection.

Comm diff
-Gender
-Culture
-Low versus high context
-Direct vs Indirect
-Self-enhancement versus self-effacement "putting u'rself up, or put down"
-Use of silence and nonverbal gesture

Response Styles
-Evaluative
-Interpretive
-Supportive
-Probing
-Understanding

Defensive/Non-Defensive Communication Climates
-Deensive Climates
Evaluation
Control
Strategy
Neutrality
Superiority
Certainly

Supportive Climates
Description
Problem orientation


I-Statements
Behavior-> Effect-> Feeling

Active listening
Being non-evaluative
Paraphrasing
Reflecting implications
Reflecting underlying feelings
Inviting further contributions
Using nonverbal respond

HR week 2-2

sue- title 7, pregnancy, equal pay, disabilities, civil right 1991, executive order 11246, sexual harassment
Title 7 - reinstate back to before, to woman, post civil war statutory, its not us, its them
Civil rights act 1991 - eeoc.gov, very expensive
American disabilities - not only public building, apply also to private
Sexual Harassment - differential treatment based on sexual gender

bonified seniority - based on fair chance of seniority
merit based system - pay based on performance
age discriminate -

diversity - includes eeo + affirmative action,
eeo
affirmative action - not allow to prefer a les qualify person minority over a more qualify majority. but it can use as a tide breaker.
to work for gov - u mist have affirmative action, made it possible to allow fair workin env

Proof Discriminate: member of a protected class, qualified working, denied from a position.
1973- raise infern of the case even wo evidence

Disperate treatment - show 1)member of protect class, 2)qualified for job/promo 3)turned down for job,raise,promo 4) job remain open, and was filled by someone else less qualified

Adverse Impact - 4/5

OWBPA basic
The OWBPA amends the ADEA to require that no purported waiver of rights to sue for age discrimination shall be valid unless waiver is "knowing and voluntary." For a waiver to be consier knowing and voluntary under the law:
-know what u doing, voluntary sign,

WARN - layoff, 60days pay

American Disability Act
Disable - Physicallly or mental impairment that "substaintially limits" one or more "major life activities"

Harassment
Company in penalty instead of manager

OM week 2-2

Tuesday go get book from his office
latent demand - out there, not aware of it

Product Orientated Layout
Advantages- Efficient production of standardized goods and services
-High processing speed
-Low cost per unit

Disadvantage - Lack of flexibility or customization
-Employee boredom/ dissatisfaction
-Quality problems

Process-Oriented Layout
-Organization by function
-Processing steps can be completed in my sequence
-Products or customers can take my "route" necessary
ADV
-Flexibility
-Customization
DISADV
-Higher cost per unit
-Higher skilled, high cost employees
-Transport/wait time between departments
-Less consistency

Chopshop is the cost highest way to produce thing> depend

CELLUAR LAYOUTS
-A compromise of product and process layout
-Create "families" of products with similar process requirements
-A "cell" contains all resources needed for family

ADV
-Flexibility greater than a product-oriented layout
-Less costly than a process-oriented layout
-Less material transport/wait
-Fewer changeovers
DISADV
-Duplication of resources

Chopshop- within my charter
Cellular- divide up

The Product/Process Matrix
Process Types
Project - unique, one-of-a-kind, products or customers. Generally large in size (building a bridge, installing software system, implementing a major improvement effort)
Job Shop - Predominantly manufacturing, high customization and flexibility, but higher volume than project.
Batch Production- Group of identical products or customers processed together through one step and then move together to the step. More limited product variety, higher production volume.
Assembly Line - Narrowly defined processes, made up of equipment with limited flexibility. Much higher volume. Still the possibility of some flexibility.
Continuous flow (repetitive)- Equipment and stations dedicated to a single thing. Very high volume. Very flow flexibility. Best chance for automation.

Market Orientation: Demand Linkage
*Make-to-stock (MTS)
-Process activated to meet expected or forecast demand
-Customer orders are served from target stocking level
-Shorter lead time for stocked item /Much longer for out of stock item
*Make-to-order (MTO)
-Process activated in response to an actual order
*may be either standing or custom product (AKA ENG-To-Order)
-WIP and finished goods inventory kept to a minimum
-Tend to have longer response time
*Assemble-to-order (ATO)
-Partially manufactured and held in unfinished state
-Customer order dictates final configuration
-Quicker response than MTO; More flexible than MTS

Develope Killer Instinct

In life, we have to be ready for the same thing. We have to know what we want. We have to not be afraid of going after it. If it’s something we really want, then we have to develop a killer instinct for it. We have to want it so bad, that nothing, no one, or no thing will stop of us from attaining it. If we don’t know what we are going for, then when it is in our face, we will have to make the choice then. That is a recipe for failure.

OB week 2-2

Intrinsic - Self realize motivation
Extrinsic - money, status..etc

Maslow Hierarchy of Needs
Self-Actualization
Esteem
Social
Safety
Physiological

McClelland's Needs Theory
The need for: Achievement (nArc)
: Power (nPow)
: Affiliation (nAff)


The Job Characteristics Model
Core job Dimension -> Critical Psychological states -> Personal and work outcomes

Skill variety - diff skills for a job
Task identity - building an airplane
Task significance - take pride in task for its important

Job Redesign
Job Rotaion
Job enlargement
" enrichment
self manage work team

Goal-Setting Theory
Specific Goal
Self Feedback
Difficult goals
----------
Performance


Equity Theory
*Employees compare their ratios of outcomes in-puts of relevant others.
Underreward < equity =" Overreward">


Expectancy Theory
-The strength of a tendency o act in a certain way depends on:
-Str of an expectation that the act will be followed by given outcome
-Attractiveness of the outcome to the individual.
Individual Effort -> Individual Performance -> Org Rewards -> Personal goals


Reinforcement Theory
*Four Methods of Shaping Behavior:
-Positive reinforcement
-Negative reinforcement
-Punishment
-Extinction

Methods for leaders to affect motivation
-Create a compelling vision
-Ensure employee-job fit
-Setting challenging, achievable goal
-Monitoring and rewarding performance
-Proactive managing low performers
-Creating the proper company culture
-Avoid demotivating actions

Motivation is not the Whole Story
Motivation + Ability + Opportunity to Perform
Performance = f(A * M * O)

Objectives
-Describes how org foster unethical business
-Define ethics and values
-Better articulate your own values
-Explain how org can promote

Values
*Core belief or desire that guide or motivate attitudes and actions
*Two Type: Terminal = end
Instrumental: means
look in book make clear distinction

Schwartz and Bilsky's Seven Universal Values
*Prosocial
*Restrictive conformity
*Enjoyment
*Achievement
*Maturity
*Self-Directed
*Security

Ethics
*The conception of right and wrong conduct that tells us whether our behavior is moral or immoral, good or bad
*not just about right and wrong!
*A few types of ethical reasoning approaches
-Utilitarianism - the many
-Individual and universal rights - the few
-Justice - what's fair
-Caring - value of relationship
-Environmentalism

Simple Ethics Test
- Golden Rule
- Publicity
- Kid on your shoulder

How to foster ethical behavior
-Clearly define & communicate ethical expectations
-Leader commitment and behavior
-Reward ethical behavior and punish unethical behavior
-Teach the tools of ethical decision making
-Encourage discussion of ethical issues
-Avoid the moral blindness and biases
-Account for theories of motivation


Ethics and international business
-Who's values should dominate?
-Some specific issues
-Bribery
-How should foreign workers be treated?

www.Business-humanrights.com

Test monday

HR week 2-1

Employment at will. (only U.S.)

Contractual Rights
-Employment Contract
-Implied Contract - no explicit agreement, expectation,
-Union Contract

Statutory right
-discrimination
-Safe
-Union

Other Rights
-Ethical Treatment
-Privacy
-Free speech

Employment and At Will Relationship
Any employee
Any time
Any reason
--------------------
Employ at will & fire condition

Potential Legal Claim Asserted
to wrongful Discharge action
1. Complimentary Theories
-Promissory Estoppel - take kids out of school, sell house, get job at new place, but job decline
-Defamation -
-Invasion of Piracy -
-Intentional Infliction of emotional distress -
-Interference with contract -
Other torts
-Assault and Battery-
-False imprisonment/arrest-
-Malicious Prosecution
-Negligent Hiring and Retention
Exception to At Will in Other States
-Public Policy Exception
-Good faith and fair dealing
-Implied Contracts
-Statutory Schemes - fire cuz dont like cuz of race, religion, discrimination, retaliation, org union..etc
Conclusion

"W.A.R.N" - Massive layoff
California Trade Secret- any info that take on independent value because it not generally known that is out side.

Work place Violent-

Controversial Issue facing HR
Electronic Monitoring- E.C.P.A. = require business purpose and consensus of all party.

OM week 2-1

The Strategic Hierachy
*Mission Statement
-A short statement of what a business does, what its values are, who its market is and why.
*Corporate Strategy
-Broad and general in large diversified companies
-Defines the business the corporation will engage in and how resource will be expended in these business.
-Set expectation for business performance
*Business Strategy
-The general basis on which the business will complete
-Cost leadership - keep cost lower than competition, may lead to lower price than competitor
-Differentiation - Create products or services that are different enough to be more attractive or better match customers view of value
-Focus - Target small segment of the market
*Functional Strategy
- Set priorities so that day-to-day decisions support business strategy

Business & Operation Strategy
*Understand what is "valued" in the market
*Choose which attributes to emphasize
*Prioritize those attributes
*Design business process with the capabilities to support those prirority

Operate Strategy
-How to design the operation
-How to allocate productive resource

Environmental Scanning
*Enable the business to stay abreast of changes in
-Technology
-Customer expectations
-Competitor's offering
-Global politics
-Regulations
-Cost of inputs

Deming- The goal of business isn't to make alternative

Structural vs. Infrastructural Decisions
*Structural - Related to tangible resources (building, equipment, process, supply-chain integration)
*Examples
-Capacity
*High vs. Low volume equipment, Adding capacity, Flexibility of capacity
-Facilities
*Location, size, design, number
-Process Technology
*Layout, Automatic
-Vertical Integration/Supplier Relationships
*Supplier links, partnerships, integration vs. outsourcing

Ask self question. What most important 4 concept of the chapter was?

Organization Behavior Week 2-1

People are completely different
People are exactly the same

Objective
* Identify individual learning style

3 Levels of Analysis
- Individual
- Group
- Organizational

*A learning organization is skilled at creating, acquiring, and transferring knowledge and modifying its behavior to reflect new knowlege and insights.

Characteristic of learning org
-Systematic problem solving
-Experimentation
-Learning from past experience
-Learning from others
-Transferring knowledge

Adaptive
-small improvement
-one loop

Generative
-Double loop learning
-Creative orientation
-challenge underlying assumption
-Continuous experimentation and feedback

Personality
-Act, behavior,
-moods, states
-traits- consistency & duration most
-Two frameworks used to describe personality:
-Big Five Model
-Myer Brig

Self-Esteem
Machiavellianism - doing whatever it take to meet the means
Locus of Control - who's in control of u'r life?
Narcissism - in love w/ 1 self
Self - Monitoring - step back look at situation apart from self
Risk Taking - how much are u willing to take risk
Type A Personality - Hardriving push things done
Proactive Personality

Guideline for Dealing with Difficult people
-Create a rich picture of:
The Problem Person
Yourself
The situation
Reframe your goals
Stage the encounter
Follow up

Env week 2-1

Chapter 15 non-renewable energy
Oil peak (Hubbert's Peak)
Coal (USA: ~300yrs)
Natural Gas (~125 yrs)
Strategic Wars

Environmental Impact
*Greenhouse gas emissions
*Water pollution
*Air Pollution (SO_2, NO_2)
*Habitat Depletion/Degradation

Trade-Offs Conventional Oil, Advantages and Disadvantages

Natural Gas: Mixture of Gases, More than half is CH_4
More plentiful than oil,
Has a high net energy yield and fairly low cost and
has the lowest environmental impact of all fossil fuels

Coal
Very plentiful (u.s. has 25%)
high net energy yield
low cost

-High (capital) costs
-Low net energy yield
-Long-lived radioactive wastes
-Vulnerable to sabatoge, safety concerns
-Require Large ammounts of water
Why nuclear become popular again?

Air Pollution
Natural, stationary, mobile sources of pollution

This I believe

bombard comfort zone = improvement
embrace confusion
Naming
Imagining a life then try to live it
I too am a happy man
there's an old answer for every new problems, so listen
act with integrity
proactive value driven
personal mission statement value creed, character
Succeed at home first
seek merit divine help
hear both side b4 judge
council other
def those absen
be sincere yet decisive
1 proficiency 1 year
plant tomorrow today
positive attitude
sense of humor
orderly work and person
do not fear mistake
facilitate success subordinate
listen 2x than speak
concentrate task at hand
balance career and family
exercise wisdom
teach love learn laugh
learn develope unique talent
self start individual
free from addictive destructive habits
money is my servant, not master
seek financial idepentdant
free from consumer debt
save more than i earn
use money and talent to make life better for others
Sucurity>Guidance>Wisdom>Power

A PRINCIPLE CENTER
Organize and execute around pri]ority
perserving enhance relationship and accomplish result


Q1- Urgent // important
Q2- Important // not urgent
Q3- not important // urgent
Q4- not imporant // not urgent

Bus 170 Corporate Finance week 1-2

Tutoring 11:30-2:30
BSAC Tutoring

Human Resource Management week 1-2

Six Important Enviromental challenges
Rapid change
Work force diversity
Globalization
Evolving rules
skills shortage
Legistation

Key Organization Challenge
Flexibility
Downsizing
Restructuring
Self managed work team
Small core team
Organization culture
Technology
Union
Competitive position

Area of Individual challenges for HR
Ethics
Productivity
Empowerment
Brain drain
Matching

HR strategies
Environment
Organizational strategies
Organization Characteristics
Organization capacities

pg 29-31 chart

1. View performance as a key variable in the design and implementation of all HR programs
2. Adopt a long-term orientation
3. Scan the competitive environment
4. Make HR systems contingent on internal and external forces affecting the firm
5. meet the needs of powerful coalition
6. secure top-management's committment
7. Establish a HR strategic forum
8. Develop a general business orientation

OM week 1-2

Resolving E-Problem
-Dispose it
-Return to sender
-Reduce the amount
-Consume Internally
-Remanufacture Recycle
-Further processing
-Reverse Disposable

*The Players
-Government-including international
-People(you, your employees, or your neighbors)
-Supply chain players
*Who are we trying to please?

CZARP: A taxonomy for EROM
This is a framework that asks the firm five questions:
Camp, Zone, Activities, Remedial, Performance

Q1: What do we mean by Camp?
Camp one- Quasi-Criminal
Camp 2 - env constructionist
camp3- Env astute
Camp4- Env angel

Q2 How is the Env being adversely affected?
*The enviroment is adversely affected when bad things happen to:
1. The planet's air, water, and land masses.
2. The planet's humans.
3. The planet's other animal specie.
4. the planet's plant life.
* Can you think of anything bad that happens beyond these four zones?
* How do you want to define bad?
* Is change bad?

Q3 What type of activities causes bad consequences?

1. Product Design Activities
a. Using components that cause bad consequences
b. Having features that add no end-user value.
c. Designing energy effic product
2. Product transformation Activities
a. Using more resource than necessary
b. Generating water or unwanted by-product
3. Post-sale Consumer Use Activities
a. Importantly discarding of product we use
b.

Q4: what remedial actions can we use to address the adverse affects?
Rather than jumping to a solution, EROM first tries to explore possible causes and consequences.

Prolem- Too many spent wooden pallet
Remedial action - Require2-way pallet use, Use other raw material such as plastic or metal
Possible Consequences - lost trucking effic. Use high cost lumer, maycost more homless can not use to keep warm.

Q5: What performance Metrics Might Ensure Progress?
If you don't build these into the standards of performance- little progress is likely.
Consider Motorola's Three Phase Approach
1. Business goals
2. Process goals

ERO and the OM Manager
*Problems associated with going green:
-The common belief that it will raise cost.
-ERO-driven investments are not good investments.
-ERO factors must be designed into the product, the process, and the supply chain
-Poor perforamnce metrics (including accoungting)
-Lean Mfg and JIT maybe counter-Green

*ERO tools
- Waste Streaming
- Cradle to gave process flow analysis

Bus 160 Managment & Organization Behavior week1

Describe seven theories of mgnt and their "ideal" manager

Scientific Management (Taylor)
-Efficient division of labor
-Small standardized job
-Matched to the capabilities of trained workers who received wage incentives

Administrative Theory (Fayol)
Basic Functions of Managers
Plan->Control->Organize->Command

Administrative Theory(Weber)
Bureaucracy as a solution to nepotism, favoritism and unprofessional behavior

Human Relations School (Hawthorne Studies)
-Acknowledged the effect of the informal social system with its norms and individual attitudes and feelings on organizational functioning
-Underlined the importance of employee morale and participation
shows interests in employees increase productivity

Assumptions about Human Nature
Theory X
ppl wont work unless u prod them
Inherently lazy, Dislike responsibility, prefer to be led

Theory Y
Carrot approach
Responsible, Motivated to work hard, Capable of self-direction

Decision Making School
-Described org as social systems based on individual decision
-Contribute the idea of bounded rationality
-Manager could control employee behavior by controlling the premises of decision making
we dont have infinite time to test, so were bounded,

Contingency Approach
-There is no one best way to manage in every situation
-Managers must find the appropriate method to match a situation

Open Systems Theory
-Organizations and all subdivisions take in and transform resource into a service/product which is purchased/ultilized by a large sytem
-All part are interdependent

Competing Values Framework
-Master manager balance the competing values of four diff models based on the situation
Human Relation -The irresponsible country club
Open System - The tumultuous anarchy
Internal Process - The Oppressive sweat shop
Internal Process- The Frozen Bureaucracy

Mental Maps
-The First step in managing the paradoxes of organizational effectiveness is understanding one's own theories of management
-Our theories or mental maps determine what we see when we look at situations and determine the role we perform

What do Great Manager Do?
Communication 28% | 45%
Traditional Management 13% | 15%
Human Resource Development 11% | 27%
Networking 48% | 12%

Fast promote Vs High performance

Lesson for today's Manager
-Learn to analyze complex situation using a variety of models or theories because no one theory is sufficient
-Develop a broad repertoire of behavior and knowledge about them when to sue them
-develop the self-control and self discipline to go beyond your natural style and adapt to a rapidly changing environment

Env issues

Natural capitol (a la miller) = natural resources + natural services Asset

Sustainability
must live off "interest" of our natural capital
multilateral institution

"Meeting the need=(poor) of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generation=(when?) to meet their own needs"
-Brundtland Comm (1987)

The three E of sustainability
Environmental Protection and enhancement
Economic development
Social equity

People, Planet, Profit

Chapter 2

-science as a process of understanding
-Components and regulation system (feed back system work) ex. climate
-Matter: forms, quality, & laws
-Energy: forms, quality, & laws
-Scientific data
-Scientific hypotheses
-Scientific (natural laws
-Scientific theories
-Scientific darwin

Purpose of social research
Exploratory: what's going on here?, anthropology
Descriptive:
Explanatory

Reasoning Methods
Inductive: "bottom-up" collect data then conclude
Deductive: "top-down" conclude then test with data

Inputs
Flows
outputs

Positive Feedback - body warming up +
Negative Feedback - body cooling down -
Homeostatis - equilibrium
Time Delay
Synergy

The Law of Conservation of Matter
Matter is not consumed
Matter is only changes form
There is no "away"

Bus 170 Corporate Finance

get 173A course reader @ Maple Press on San Carlos Street between 1oth & 11th

Not to put all eggs in one Basket. What about true love?

Financial Statements
Cash flow
Balance Sheet
Income Statement

TOPICS
----------
Time & Risk
Time value of Money
Debt and Equity
Cost of Capital
Capital budgeting process - determine investment good or not
Capital Structure - How much is funded by debt and by Equity

----------------------------
Time Value of Money - as time goes by, money can grow

Investment->

Future Value - Amount an Investment worth in the future
1000$ one year 5% FV = 1000x(1+0.05) = 1050
1000$ two year?
3 yrs = 1000x(1.05)^3

FV_n = C * (I+r)^n

Compounding Interest

Present Value : What is the money that occurs in the future worth today?

PV = FV_n / (1+r)^n
PV = PV(1+r)^n

$500 in 5 yrs. 10%
pv = 500/ 1.1^5 = 310.46

$500 in 10 yrs
pv= 500/1.1^10 = 192.77


FV_n r fixed then n increase, PV decrease

FV_n n fixed, then R inrease, PV decrease

contact info

yen- lilpinkstaro3

yendotcom@gmail.com

Bus 150

Prepare discussion case each week. attach it at end of course to our self evaluating
3% extra credit,
Quiz every day, expect 11 quiz
Keep a diary.

How to read a chapter
1. read summary
2. read title then flesh out, understand the key terms.
* name tent coolness
Review over each week work and prepare for next week

Critical thinking questions answer and type up.

ppl sue you not cuz they feels their civil rights were violated, its cuz they're pissed off!

Bus 140

Video: Fish Mgnt
*This video describe one approach to taking a boring job into a spectacle
*What are the Four Elements of Fish Mgt
-Make Work Fun
-Be there (want to do the job)
-Make the day (a more delightful experience)
-Choose your attitude

Class Format
*Part One: What is happening in our world?
-How do current events relate to OM?
-One Goal is to transform what you see into that you observe
-Usually the class will begin with a video selected to demonstrate an actual operations
*Part Two: Administrative Matters
-What is due, not yet done, etc.

Who the hell is Dave Denzler?
*Born the yrs after lassie was created
*blessed by two parents & three sibling
*learned the art of making money early to get things i wanted (created whatdoyouneed)
*got into college via affirmative action
*Nuclear engineer fiasco
*earned MBA & DBA accidentally
*taught at Purdue4 yrs
*work at WeyerHaeuser, AFPC, Rod McLellan
*Escaped to Iowa
*Joined SJSU in 1987--Died and FERPed in 2009

How we got here?
Early Industrial revolution Heroes
Adam Smith>Ely Whitney>Frederick Taylor>Henry Ford
Euro Industrial Rev --> US Industrial Rev

Adam Smith - Father of capitalism, wrote "the wealth of a nation", invisible hands
The division of labors,
Henry Ford- Perfected assembly line
Ely Whitney- Father of standardization
Frederick Taylor- Father of scientific management

Afred P Sloan - Rescue GM from bankruptcy, Modern corporation, Financial control, Medium of performance. Departments on treadmill, faster it run faster corporate senior throw money at it.
Peter Drucker - Theory of Management, left Australia move to England, Recognized by Winston churchill, Came to USA & fascinated, write books & articles of what he seen in America Institution, noticed by GE, Motorolla, GM. Something in Business as Management, Management of ppl. Function of business is to please customer. Wrote books, the concepts of Values, The causes we buys things.
W. Edwards Deming - Total Quality Management - came out of Iowa, work for sensus beauro, Statistic background,

The Two Views of Operations Management
*The Traditional Model
OM transforms factors of production into goods or services of higher value
*The business Process Model of the Firm
OM is involved in doing or supporting the four core sets of business process
-Determining customer needs
-Developing product strategy (product innovation)
-Managing the entire supply chain
-Managing non-value adding support activities

Implications of the Business Process Perspective
*Operations Manager Must Maintain a Crossfuction perspective
-Concern about pleasing the customer is paramount
-A resource balancing act: things, humans and information
-The Operations Manager must wear many hats
-The One sixth Perspective
-Profit = MS1 x MS2 x MS3
= Market Size x Market Share x Margin on Sales
where margin on sale = price - cost

beside reducing cost, what can u do to add more values to u'r product?
what can u do to increase market share?
Dont spend all u'r time reducing cost,
How to grow u'r business when the market isn't?
Dont put u'rself in little pocket and go from there.

Bus 160 Managment & Organization Behavior

What is O.B.?
The Psychological Contract and Commitment

What?
Definition: a field of study that endeavors to understand, explain, predict, and change human behavior that occurs in the organization context

Why?
-Understanding OB helps determine manager effectiveness
-Technical and quantitative skills are important
-But leadership and communication skills are critical
-Skilled manager positively effect org outcomes through
-Lower turnover of quality employees
-Increased satisfaction of employees
-Results in better financial performance


How?
-See
-Know
-Act
Start to become an O.B. expert
Experimental Learning

Leadership= Respect, develop, prosper
Goals: Company to prosper, understand employees, develop ppl, motivate,
RESPECT- treat fairly, rights they have, acknowledge ,

Goal: Start to become an expert
- Characteristic of expert
-Possess a more extensive knowledge base
-Have more complex perceptions of their work
-Complement analytical skills with intuitive reasoning

Task at which expert are better
-Diff between relevant and irrelevant info
-combine relevant info

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) model
Situation->Cues->Patterns->Action scrips->Mental Simulation->Mental Model->Action script

I hear and I forget
I see and I remember
I do and I understand
-Confucius

Mastery Vs Harmony
Internal locus control Vs External Locus Control
Trustworthy Vs Untrustworthy
Mutable Vs Immutable (capable of changing?)
Synchronic Vs Sequential
Status = Achievement Vs Ascription

Objective
-Define the Psychological contract and discuss the obligations of the contract currently in place
-Explain the importance of the psychological contract and what happens when it is violated
-explain the benefits of committed employee and what employer can do to foster commitment
-Describe external influences that affect workplace experience
-Explain the self-fullfiling prophecy and how managers can apply this concept
-explain the pinch model
-Make a psychological contract between us

Psychological Contract
-An individual's beliefs, shaped by the organization, regarding the terms and conditions of reciprocal exhange agreement between individuals and their organization

Important of Psychological Contracts
-Link individuals to organization
-Reflect the trust that is a fundamental feature

Broken Psychological Contracts
-Broken inadvertently, through disruption, and by breach of contract
-Many consequence
-Prevented by realistic job previews

Employee Commitment
-Emotional attachment to, involvement in, and identification with organization
-Strong belief in and acceptance of organization's goals values
-Willingness to exert considerable effort on behalf of organization
-Strong desire to remain in organization

Organization Citizenship Behavior (OCB)
-OCB refers to discretionary contributions that are organizationally related, but are neither explicitly required nor contractually rewarded by the organization, yet contribute to its effective fuctioning

Workplace Incivility
-Low intensity deviant behavior that violates workplace norms for mutual respect
-It may or may not be intended to harm the target

A new business world?
-How has the psychological contract between employees and employers changed in the last 50 years and what has driven those changes?

Summer Class Schedule

BUS1 170-01
LEC (30041) TuTh 5:00PM - 8:30PM
Boccardo Business Center 202

BUS3 140-01
LEC (30116) TuTh 8:00AM - 11:30AM
Boccardo Business Center 105

BUS3 150-01
LEC (30120) TuTh 1:00PM - 4:30PM
Boccardo Business Center 103

BUS3 160-02
LEC (30122) MoWe 6:00PM - 9:30PM
Boccardo Business Center 105

ENVS 1-01
LEC (30051) MoWe 9:00AM - 12:10PM
Clark Building 227

Data Mining

EMAIL HIM! /w questions

Global Econ

Final 75-85Question. 7:15, Tuesday 19th
10% begining, 20% previous exam, 70% new materials

Chapter 15
EXPORTING

Major Concern: tax, currency, control, risk,
Proper procedure to manage risk of exporting

PO-Purchase Order
letter of credit <-- request letter of credit, can take money from their bank if they do not pay
draft: Instruction document that dictate payment terms, zero risk with US dollars.
"" : who's going to pay, how, when? wire transfer
Bill of lading: receipt, contract, document of title

manage risk associate with currency by using Dollars
letter of credit, make sure getting paid
P.0 dictate all the terms.

P.O. -> Ship -> Invoice

Cash flow

Global economic

Entry Modes, 6 diff methods firm may choose to enter market.

1. exporting
+Adv: Low cost, Central Planing (pyramid), Economy of scale "benefits of making alot"
- Disadvantage: location economy, high transportation cost, Tariff, give up value chain adv ex. marketing, core competency.

2. turn key project: Technology transfer, all of the start up company are hand over to a contractor
+Adv: Access to know how (buyer), Risk reduction (seller),
-Disadvantage: Make competitor(seller)

3. Licensing: Property Rights for Royalty Fees, on a specific time basis
+Adv: low development cost, Avoid tariff,
-Dis: No control, lose value chain, lost strategic coherence, lost of technical know how

4. Franchise: strict control over function "clarity over total offer"
+ Adv of franchisor (inc.), lower cost
- Dis: no control over business, Franchisor (less control),

5. Joint Venture: 2 or more company come together
+Adv: lower cost alternative, Less gov error(1), Access to technology, know how(2)
: localize knowlege (1)
-Dis: loss of technical control, lose strategic coherence, conflict between parent co.

6. Wholly own, green field (build it), subsidy, own new operation or buy it
+Adv: control tech & operation, scale of economy, strategic coherence, global web
-Dis: Risk & high cost,

Data mining

Detecting outliers:
Method 1
|z| >= 3

ex. 60
use Pivot table in excel
count IP address
how many time the address show up, see the standard dev, calculate the z score

z= x - mu / sigma
if Z is > than 3 its an outlier

mu = mean or average = 11.6
Standard deviation = 141.1525

2nd Popular method.

IQR 3rd Quater - 1st Quarter
Median 2nd quarter
1.5 x IQR = outlier

outliers 1st 2nd 3rd outliers
|---------|====|====|-----------|
1.5xIQR 3rd-1st
25% 50% 25%


q1<-quantile(data[,3],.25,na.rm=true)
q3<-quantile(data[,3],.75,na.rm=true)

Q1= 150
Q3=175
interquartile range = (175-150)/2 = 26
iqr<-q3-q1
iqr = 26

26*1.5 = 39

q1 = 150 - 39 = 111 (any score below 111 is an outlier)
q3 = 176 +39 = 215 (any score above 215 is an outlier)


Proximity-Based Outlier Detection.
K-nearest neighbor

ex.62
Lm - regression
a "linear model"
x_2 = Beta_o + B_1, X_1 + Ephsilon

model<-lm(data[,3]~data[,2]
predict data 3 using data 2

x_2 = -36+1.1x_1

final
answer 3 out of 4 question
from the reading.
one page single space per question.
or 2 pg 2x space.
font 10 or 11
turn in on may 21th. 6pm.

Global economic

STRATEGY & STRUCTURE

Conditions for success
1) Internal consistency: operating on efficiency frontier
2) Strategy + Structure = ex. lolipop
3) 1+2 must match external environment

Functional Form

Pyramid vs Pancake

Argument for Centralization
- High Coordination
- Decision are consistence objective
- Internal org change is easier
- Avoid duplication of activity
- Static model/ bureaucratic structure

Argument for Decentralization
- More mgnt time for primary function
- Increase individual freedom/motivation
- Rapid response to env. change
- adapt model/ organic structure
- Decision made close to front line
- Increase in accountability

ch.14 ENTRY STRATEGY & ALLIANCE

I. Where?
Profit = f(Revenue, Cost, size of market, wealth, growth)

II. Timing of entry
1st mover advantage - Brand Equity, Experience efficient, Creation of switching costs
1st mover disadvantage - Pioneering Cost: Failure, Develop the market, Educate consumer,

III. Scale ($ = Risk)
A. Strategic Commitment
Large scale, long term
Signaling to customers
Signaling to competition
B. Small scale: Test market
get Learning, small money & risk,

Global economic

STRATEGY
Value Creation
(Total Value) = Cost + Profit + C/S
- Value added is all value above cost
- Profit = TR - TC
- C/S = all value in excess of price

============
Consumer surplus | <-- Consumer is willing to pay
============ <-- Price (retail)
Profit
============
Cost
============

Strategies (Porter)
1) Low cost (brutal)
2) Differentiation strategy (sweet spot)


Efficiency frontier

Core competency- something u'r good at, other have difficulty & copy, customer value it.


Lowering Cost
===========
Experience curve:
Learning effect:
Economy scale:
Return to Specialization


4 Strategic choices

1. International Strategy
-Centralized product development (at home)
-Mfg+mkt in host country (control at home)
-Export core competency
-High Mfg cost due to duplication

2. Localization Strategy
-Maximum local responsiveness
-Customized product + marketing (each reason)
-Production + R&D at each major market
-Poor core competency leverage
-Very high cost structure
-Decentralize autonomous units
3. Global model
-Low cost strategy
-Utilize location economies and curve effect
-Very little or none customization
-Standardization
-Very low Pricing
4. Transnational model
-Must exploit economies of scale (were big)
-Must exploit location economies (low cost)
-Must transfer core competency
-Responsive to local market

Supply Chain Management

Rate Fences
-Physical rate fences
-type of inventory
-view or location
-Amenities
-Non-Physical rate fences
-Controlled availability (coupon, geographic)
-Sort on buyer characteristic (age)
-sort on transation chracteristics (time of purchase)
-Restrictions (no cancellation)


Rate Fence: Time of Purchase
-In fashion, some customer are very fashion conscious
-Eager to buy at the start of the selling season

SUMMARY

- Smart Pricing/Revenue Management Strategies
-WHy differentiate between different customers and offer different prices?
-result in higher revenue
-Integrate pricing and inventory strategies to influence

Global economic

CHAPTER 11
CAPITAL MARKETS
Investor + Buyers = Market

Investor-
1) non-bank - Financial Instuitions, Pension funds, Insurance co.
2) Corporation w/ cash
3) Individuals

Buyers-
1) Individuals
2) Companies
3) Goverments


Market maker tied Buyers and Investor together
- Comercial Bank - IR spread X + I
- Investment Banks - Bring parties together gone, examples bear stearn, leaman brothers

Debt is not bad, its a way of growing a business.
Liquidity = measure of how much cash flowing around?


Loans to corporations in 2 Primary forms
1) Equity: STOCKS ex. owed bank 800,000, the house worth 1mil, 200k is the equity
- dividends (voluntary)
2) Debt: note or bonds, corporate debts. Corporates bonds = Junk bonds (high risk, high yield)
- service


money is elastic goods.
Greater supply of liquidity, give us a lower cost of capital
more liquidity, there's more growth and capital.


Portfolio: --> Portfolio Risk = (Firm) Stock Specific Risk + Systematic(macroeconomic risk)

Portfolio: A+B
A: more diff stock = less risk (portfolio diversification)
at 30 stock we diversify all of the 75% of the risk.
the 25% is systematic risk

Can we diversify Macroeconomic risk?
Yes, by buying portfolio of foreign country
we can reducing risk by buying diff stock @ diff portfolio of foreign country, 90%

the more Integration of our global economy the more risk were vulnerable of one down being effects others.

GROWTH OF CAPITAL MARKET (good thing) "Fear & Greed drives all this."
cost less for capital in the future
are there more demand of capital currency when there are more capital?

Growth gives High liquidity, Low Cost of Capital, Greater acceleration of economic & GDP
Contagent & being able to contain contagent- Speculation (greed) lead alot of problems to this process and system (bubbles) -> Economic risk

"Hot Money" flow to where most profiting country, from develop to developing country. Money chasing highest return, the problem is when exist and left behind a country.

chasing 1 bubble to the next, 2000 market boom, taking all money out, put in housing, then oil.
next bubbles = stocks. The decision of the boom are controlled by the fews

Money leak out of system: Euro currency (nothing to do with europe)
ex. Bill gate build a bank in Macao and gov cant do anything about it.
Lower interest rate: Reserve Requirement: Bank must always have X amount requirement reserve in vault. to prevent bank run on.

100 deposit in fed system, 100 -10 = 90
10% of 90 = 9%

Euro System
100 - 0
9% = 9$

Data Mining

Test question #1 Calculate the Misclassification Rate
Split on A & B

Test question #2
Numeric Variable to split on.
out of all the split which is best to split?
class Smallest to biggest

split on all the places in between
then calculate Misclassification Rate

Test question #3
Predicting by reading the Tree output

age= middle
number = 5
start = 10
class = ?

look at level 1 @ number 2 or 3 follow down the tree then classify it.
whatever the word is, is the majority

test Question #4
ROC curve

Model M2
sort largest to smallest

True Possitive Rate =TP/(TP+FN)
(TP+FN) = same as # of actual positive

False Positive Rate = FP/(FP+TN)
(FP+TN) = same as # of actual negative

P Class TPR FPR
.68 - 0/5
.61 +
.45 +
.38 -
.31 -
.09 +
.05 -
.04 -
.03 +
.01 +


question #8
a) boosting
b) correct, bagging use repeated samples
c) boosting also

#9

Quality Mgt

6 sigma
1. Id core process & key customer
2. define customer req
3. measure current performance
4.prioritize, analyze and implement improvement system
5. expand and integrate the six sigma system


1. a) what are core process?
-central to the mission of the organization
-may be multi-functional and/or multi-organizational
-where the value added?
b) define your desire customer base
-who are you trying to serve or sell?

2. Define customer requirement
a) Customers are the reason for our existence
b) Capture the voice of the customer (what customer want? feeling? desire)
c) Customer always define their own desired experience

3. Measure current performance
a. Asses each core process against customer requirements
b. Action
- Establish a measurement infrastructure system
- Set priorities for resources (use Pareto Principle)
- Evaluate and chose improvement principle
- design and execute within capability

4. Prioritize, Analyze, and Implement Improvements
a. Identify improvement activities with greatest opportunity for return
b. Address root causes
c. Replace or improve process

5. Expand and Integrate the Six Sigma System
a. change your way of doing businesss
b. no quick fixes, short term solutions, etc.
c. monitor critical processes (SPC)
d. establish process ownership and management
e. Develop response plan and mechanisms
f. involve the entire company
g. continue to listen to the customer


--------------------------------------------------

not all companies are candidates for six sigma (and may never be)!
ex. family owned business, strong cultures and tides

Looking into the future
1. do we have a clear developed and staed strategy for the future
2. outlook for financial strength and growth of the organization
3. is the organization agile and able to adapt to change?

answer "no" to all 3 Question, not good for six sigma
Yes to all 3 is good foundation for six sigma
mixed answer, may need focus on some area

Looking at the Present Questions

1. What are our current performance levels?
-profit, return, growth, yield, k-sigma level, dpmo, PU, etc
2. how well do we meet customer requirement?
- sastisfaction index
3. what our current efficiency level?


Possitive answer, may mean six sigma is not urgen
mix need work


Looking at fitness for change questions
1. what are the state of our system for managing change?
- performance measures, integration, etc.
2. How well do we manage cross-functional proccesses?
- Multi-functional teams, cooperation, barriers
3. What else is going on that might conflict?
- Acquisitions, NPI, new systems, economic factors

Looking at fitness for change - Assessing the answers
1. if system are not in place this maybe a good place to start
2. if cross functional cooperation and integration are absent - watch out!
3. if other major activities are going on put six sigma on the back burner

* Six Sigma is not for everybody!
* Reason why you might decline or hold off
- You are already doing very well (better than 95% of what can be achieved in quality)
- You have too much on your plate already; put six sigma in your long term plan
- you recognize....

------------------------------------

Six Sigma cos/benefits

Benefit--
-probably need to estimate
-Use average, sample, expert opinion
-Find any concrete benefits you can
-recognize and communicate the uncertainty of the benefits data

The Time Element

-Results do not happen overnight
-Expect at least six to nine months before you can see result.

COST--
-Labor (payroll)
- full time six sigma team (black belt)
Management, support staff, part time team member
-Training and consulting
-Improvement implementation
-equipment, major process change, system

Is a cost/Benefit Ratio Right?
-Probably not!!
Exception: specific, small project, cost are much much more than benefits
-Other factors are more important
- survival, competitiveness, customer satisfaction, long term saving
-May require "leap of faith"

------------
Objective -- 3 Possible Levels
1. Business Transformation
- Major change in the business such as greater flexibility
2. Strategic Improvement
- High-level strategic

Scope - Org Factors
- available resources
- other concurrent activities
- how well are we to accept change

TimeFrame
-Break down effort with time estimate
-Find a meaningful and visible intended result
-Look for a reasonable "quick win"

Entries to the Roadmap
-Based on Objecctive Level
-Biz transformation -> id core process & key customer
- strategic improve - define customer

Pilots
-always start with pilot to test out
-reduce risk
-more easily manage
-easier to measure & adjust

Data Mining

K-mean clustering, (popular method of clustering)
each cluster get a center, we assign K amount of cluster
Find the cluster with the mimimizing the sum of squared distance from the center point.
repeat till center settle down.

1. Select K points as the initial centroids
2. repeat
3. form K cluster by assigning all points closest to centroid
4. compute the centroid of each cluster
5. untill the centroid dont change.

ex. 49
fit<-kmean (x,2) //take the data and put in 2 cluster
fit
clustering mean = 2 points
calculating the distances.

knnnfit<-knn(fit$centers,x,as.factor(c(-1,1))) */ basically gettin 2 diff color.

ex.50
just like last example. but using sonar data

ex.51 asking 2 diff thing metal and wood object, does the cluster we drew corresponding with the objects? now color them what the actuals points are. on 61th column
if we based on clustering, it have not much to do with the type of object that they are.
need to pick better attributes.

ex.52
use the cluster to classify the data, how accuracy would that be?
1-sum(knnfit==y)/lenghth(y) */ ==y means compare with the actual data|| 1-sum = Misclas er

ex.53
repeat with all 60 columns.
u can draw a cluster, it make no contribute to classify what type of materials it is.

ex.54
x<-c(1,2,3,5,6,7,8)

assign center, then assign closet points to center,
center 1 & 2

Iteration Centers
0 1&2
1 1&5*1/6
2 2&6.5
3 same, stop on repeat, make sure it the same.

ex.55
write Kmean algorithm in R

Marketing Notes ch.9

Product life cycle
Introductory stage - first time buyer, neg profit,
growth stage - ppl know about the product, benefits, result promo more relate with sales & coupon
maturity stage-
Decline Stage-
after decline, usually no1 left producing the product, there may still ppl who wants it, there's opportunity to monopolist

market label brand-rolex example, diff between 2 models pricing.
Toyota-Private label brand, allow to sell diff brand at diff outlets. Lexus
Brand Extension- if u got good name, Porshe goes into SUV arena
sometime its good to have completely seperate brand labels. benefits if in high risk industry

Data Mining

Boosting
fit the model, weight the one heavily wrong, test the model again then repeat.

AdaBoost - a version of the AdaBoost algorithm
g is our "weak learner"
classes -1 & 1

correct prediction gives 1
incorrect prediction gives -1

Clustering-divide data into group
descriptive statistic
Goal- object within cluster is similar with each other, being closed together

-Clustering for understanding
-Clustering for Ultility
-Summaeriziing: different algorithms can run faster on a data set summarized by clustering
-Compression: big set of data, break into cluster, what are the key in each cluster
-Finding nearest neighbors

K-mean = number of cluster we make
each cluster associate with the center, often the mean
each point assign to cluster with the closest centroid
the number of cluster, K, must be specified ahead of time.

Quality Mgt

Process Improvement Methodology
-Management responsibility
-dev process improvement plan
-determine process or area to examine
-Form and train Process/Quality Improvement team (need representation)
Team: use coarse tool
-Process flowchart (2 version, as it, & should be)
-check sheets and histogram
-Pareto analysis <-- (iterative)
-Fishbone chart --> steps)
Team: use fine tools
- Process control charts
- Run diagram
- scatter diagram
- failsafing
Team
-Determine process change
- Implement pilot process improvement
- Measure and evaluate results
-Repeat if result unsastisfactory; deploy full implementation if result satisfactory

PDCA or (PDSA) cycle
*also known as the Deming wheel, or deming/shewhart cycle or wheel
-4parts to the cycle
-Plan: document and analyze
-Do: implement "improvement"
-Check (or study): compare desire state
-Act: correct or standardized

Six Sigma

Started as a simple metric by Bill Smith working at Motorolla
Migrated to Allied signal (Honeywell)
Picked up by General Elecric
-Commitment by CEO Jack Welch in 1995

move from 3sigma to 6 sigma
1a = 32%
2a = 4.5%
3a = 0.3%
6a = 0.00034%

Defect- any mistake or error passed on to the customer
- general view any variation from specification
DPU (defect per unit)
- number of defect per unit of work
- ex: 3 lost bag/8000 customer = 0.000375

Statistics - Off-centering
Represents a shift in the process mean
Impossible to always keep the process mean the same time (this Would be perfection)
Does Not represent a change in specification
Control of shift within +-1.5 sigma of the targetr to keeps defect to a maximum of 3.4 per mil

Global economic

Circular reference study guide
Y=C+I+G+NX aggregate demand function
Biggest explanatory is C = consumption.
C=70% of y in USA
Balance of Payments
-Current account deficits in (U.S)
-lead to lower values
-rapid devaluation cause Capital Flight
-Increase Interest rate due to dumping US bonds
High budget deficits caused both above
- Downward spiral $ cause current account to goes back to balance & stabilize
- Fisher effect i = r_bar + I
i=nominal interest rate, r_bar = real interest rate, I = inflation
- PPP- purchasing power parity, d/$
- Federal Reserve, 2 scenario for U.S. Economy
Life is good scenario 1, A) Fed policy? raise real interest, reduce money supply, lower inflation & strenghten currency. Reduce M1, M2.
Life is bad scenario 2, B) Fed policy? raise Consumption back to 70% from 63%

Marketing ch.12

IMC- Integrated Marketing Communication
Product Price Distribution Position Promotion, put all together create a meaningful benefits about the product

about targeting msg to specific market segment
For example: If u wanna reek hispanic segment, a) ads on spanish medium, b) promote in neighborhood w/ high spanish %. Targeting.

Global economic

PPP = Purchasing Power Parity
price of a basket of goods should be roughly same in all country

P= Price
B= Basket of goods
$= dollar
d= duby

P_B_$/P_B_d = $/d

Change in its price will change the currency rate
Inflation = weaken $ values
Inflation is the primary driver for currency rate
Inflation has a monetary policy, relate with M1 & M2

1. change of money rate > change of GDP = Inflation
2. Low Fed Interest Rates

Fisher Effect:
i = r + I

i = Nominal interest rate
r= Real rate
I= Expected inflation

fed raise real estate significant high to attract investor it can strenghtening currency value while inflation

equity= earning interest on something u aren't pay for. ex. buy house as the value of it raise.

Ch.10

International monetary system
Y=C+I+G+NX
"Follow the money"

usa will not manipulate their currency, they let the market decide the price point.
however other country China manipulate their currency to lower its values so that their products are cheaper to have an trade export advantage.

ex. Sony, the cost of 1 yen strenght it cost 300mil dollar to them.

arguement against manipulate currency: Foreign Reserve account "keep pile of gold, yen, currencies" use reserve to defend their currency

Usa defense against japan by weaken its own dollar, and the price of japan import become more expensive, making its less attractive. End of currency manipulation.

Competive evaluation.

Global economic

Ch 9 Foreign Exchange Market
determine the relative rate of currency depend on supply & demand of that currency.

->Exchange Rate
convert currency from one to another
$=medium of exchange
store of value
US dollar is world based currency for trading

Currency Speculation

1) Spot exchange rate "right now deal"
2) Forward exchange "exchange currency for specified rate sometime in future"

PRICE THEORY
"The law of one price"
*assumption
-1 Competitive Markets
-2 No transaction cost
-3 No Barrier to trade

The Identical product sold in diff country must sell for the same price

PPP = Purchasing Power Parity
The price of the basket of goods should be roughly equivalence of each country
P = Price
B = Basket of goods
$ = dollar
d = duby

P_B$/P_Bd = $/d

Data Mining ch.5

Missclassification: Techniques

M.R
Class1: Cancer
Class2: No Cancer

Two way to error:
1. False Possitive, find something not there.
2. False Neg, Not find something there.

Test 1 for cancer
-Test on 1000 ppl

Classify
Cancer No cancer
Actual Cancer 10 40**
No Cancer 5* 945

* type 1
** type 2
Misclassification rate: 0.045

Test 2 for cancer
-Test on 1000 ppl

Classify
Cancer No cancer
Actual Cancer 48 2**
No Cancer 50* 900

Misclassification rate: 0.052




RECALL & PRECISION

Predicted Class
Class=Yes Class=No
Actual Class=Yes a (TP) b (FN)
Class=No c (FP) d (TN)

Recall = a/(a+b) = TP / (TP+FN) - tell us how we do on the ppl that are actual Possitive
Precision = a/(a+c) = TP / (TP+FP) - tell us how we do on the ppl that are predict Possitive
Before we just used accuracy = a+d /(a+b+c+d) = TP+TN / (TP+TN+FP+FN)

THE F MEASURE
F combines recall and precision into one number
F= 2rp/(r+p) = 2TP / (2TP+FP+FN)
its equals the harmonic mean of recall and precision
Book calls it F_1 measure because its weight both recall and precision equally

The ROC curve
ROC stands for Receiver Operating Characteristic
Since we can "turn up" or "turn down" the number of observations being classified as the possitive class, we can have many different values of true possitive rate (TPR) and false positive rate (FPR) for the same classifier.
TPR = TP / (TP+FN) a/(a+b)
FPR= FP / (FP+TN) c/(c+d)

The ROC curve plots TPR on the y-axis and FPR on the x-axis

Quality Mgt

Benefits of Teams
-broad range of skills
-Workload sharing
-Increase flexibility
-Synergy
-Increased organizational learning
-Balanced decision making

Five Motivators

1. Mutuality
2. Recognition for personal achievement
3. Belonging
4. Bounded power
5. Creative autonomy

Employee Empowerment and Involvement

Greater control over your work
No penalty for making decisions that don't pan out
Management is changing and becoming more contemporary
Management is committed to quality improvement over the long haul

Enablement = tools, training, communication
Empowerment = authority, control

Management will concede more control over company system to you
Mnagement values your ideas
Mnagement trusts you and is worthy of trust in return
You will be rewarded for making decisions that benefits the company
Labor is capable of making decisions

Things that are neccessary for empowerment
-Clear authority and accountability
-Participation in planning at all levels
-Adequate communications and information for decision making
-Responsibility with authority
-Flattening Hierachies for improved effectiveness
-Team leader roles and responsibilities
-Team rules

Teams of Quality Improvement Teams
-Process improvement teams
-Cross-functional teams - bring in various dept
-Tiger teams - job done in short time
-Natural work groups - natural protenity within work place
-Self-Directed work teams - minimum amount of mgnt
-Technology teams -
-Virtual teams

IMPLEMENT TEAMS

Facilitation- Helping or aiding teams by maintaining a process orientation
Team Building- Follows a process that identifies rules for team members and helps them become competent

Example of Teams
-Navy Seals
-Massaschusetts General Hospital Room